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On March 12, 2023, there was a notable uptick in the American stock market, signifying a robust momentum, particularly among Chinese concept stocksThe closing numbers reflected a positive turn; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 235.83 points, ending at 39,005.49, with a growth of 0.61%. The Nasdaq Composite noted gains of 246.37 points, translating to a 1.54% increase to close at 16,265.64, while the S&P 500 soared by 57.33 points, a rise of 1.12%, registering a new record high in its closing figuresThe European indices followed suit, with the UK's FTSE 100 up by 1.02%, France's CAC 40 by 0.84%, and Germany's DAX gaining 1.23%.
The optimism in the market was carried on the wings of newly released economic data from the U.SDepartment of Labor, which revealed a higher-than-expected core inflation rateFor February, the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 3.2%, surpassing expectations of 3.1%. Additionally, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.3% in January to 0.4% in February
When excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, the core CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.1% from the previous period, marking the smallest annual increase since May 2021. The month-on-month growth remained steady at 0.4%.
Analysts have noted that while February’s CPI demonstrates a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% compared to January, the resilience of core CPI underscores persistent inflation pressures in the U.SeconomyProjections for the first quarter of 2024 suggest that CPI will continue on a downward trajectoryHowever, the stubbornness in core inflation might lead to a gradual slowdown in the first half of the year, complicating efforts to stabilize around the 2% mark in the latter half.
Following the inflation release, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicated a staggering 99% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the 5.25%-5.50% range this March, with only a 1% chance of a 25 basis point cut
By May, there is an expectation that the rates will stay the same at 87.9%, while the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut stands at 12% and only 0.1% for a reduction of 50 basis pointsIn June, the possibility of a rate cut climbs to 63%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently conveyed that the Fed is nearing the level of confidence needed to initiate rate cuts, although some officials express a desire to see broader reductions in prices before proceedingThe Fed's two-day monetary policy meeting scheduled for the upcoming week is seen as pivotal, with expectations leaning towards a hold in ratesSince July of the previous year, the Fed has maintained its target rate at its highest point in 20 years.
Meanwhile, the optimism among small businesses in the U.Shas taken a hit, with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reporting a decline in sentiment due to ongoing high prices and borrowing costs
Their confidence index fell by 0.5 points to 89.4 in February, marking the sixth drop in seven months.
Despite some Wall Street firms increasing their outlook for American equities, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.SEquity Strategist Mike Wilson cautioned that due to a lack of widespread corporate earnings growth, there is no current justification to raise the S&P 500 targetWilson emphasized that there are no signs of profit growth in the broader economic backdrop, advising investors to monitor corporate earnings reports and economic data closely for informed decision-making.
In the technology sector, major players experienced gains, with Oracle's stock skyrocketing over 11%. Nvidia surged more than 7%, while other tech stocks including TSMC, Meta, and Microsoft posted increases of over 3%. In smaller increments, Amazon, Netflix, and Qualcomm saw upticks over 1%. Conversely, Intel, Google's Class A shares, and Apple had slight increases, while both Broadcom and Tesla dipped slightly and Boeing faced a sharper decline exceeding 4%.
Among the notable Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) rose by 3.96%. Li Auto climbed over 8%, followed closely by Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers with gains exceeding 7% and 6%, respectively
Other notable performers included iQIYI and Pinduoduo, both above 5%, while JD.com and Vipshop scored over 4%, with Baidu and Tencent Music seeing increases above 2%.
Focusing on star stocks, Oracle’s substantial rise of 11.71% led to a record high closingThe company’s third-quarter revenue hit $13.3 billion, a 7.1% increase from the prior year, aligning well with market expectationsThe adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 exceeded anticipated figures of $1.38. Significantly, revenue from their cloud computing segment soared by 25% year-on-year, reaching $5.1 billion, just above the market forecast of $5.06 billion.
Nvidia's price rose by 7.16%, surpassing the $900 threshold, with the company’s market valuation nearing $2.3 trillionThe NVIDIA GTC is set to unfold on March 18, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to announce groundbreaking advancements in accelerated computing, generative AI, and robotics
This event is highly anticipated as one of the most important platforms for Nvidia’s annual releases, establishing its reputation as a significant barometer for AI trends.
AMD saw a directional rise of 2.20%, with CEO Lisa Su projecting substantial growth in the AI sector over the following yearsShe opined that AMD could capture a larger market share due to technological advancements and stressed the pivotal role of AI, describing it as the most significant technology witnessed in the past half-century.
Tesla faced a slight dip of 0.13%, with reports emerging that its Berlin Gigafactory had recommenced operations, after interruptions due to damage last weekNotably, reports indicated that Tesla remains one of the most shorted stocks in the U.Smarket, highlighting ongoing skepticism in the investor community.
Boeing experienced a significant decline of 4.29%, primarily linked to its 737 Max program failing to pass 33 audits conducted by the FAA
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